ASHOKLEY
Mid CapAshok Leyland Limited
Auto
Ashok Leyland is an Indian commercial vehicle manufacturer, producing MHCVs, LCVs, electric vehicles, and offering power solutions and defense vehicles. It also has financial services subsidiaries and is expanding its global footprint.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Weak fundamentals, management trust needs verification, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is consistent.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 2/4 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 31 Mar 2026
Average · 52/100margin compression · Rev +17% YoY · PAT +11% YoY · +16% QoQ
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹17,246 Cr | +17.4% | +16.3% |
| EBITDA | ₹3,308 Cr | +10.6% | +17.2% |
| Operating margin | 19.0% | -100 bps | +0 bps |
| PAT | ₹1,381 Cr | +10.8% | +60.2% |
| PAT margin | 8.0% | -47 bps | +220 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Ashok Leyland achieved its highest ever Q3 volumes, revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, PBT, and PAT, driven by strong domestic MHCV and LCV growth, market share gains, and robust non-CV business performance.
The company delivered superlative Q3 FY26 financial performance, with strong volume growth across segments and market share gains. Management is confident of a new CV replacement cycle, supported by favorable macros and product innovation. Near-term margin pressure from commodity costs and product mix is being addressed.
New CV Replacement Cycle
GST reset provided the trigger for a fresh CV replacement cycle, elevating sentiments of both retail and bulk buyers.
Product Innovation & Portfolio Expansion
Launched HIPPO tractor, TAURUS tipper, new multi-axle trucks, 4.1-ton Bada Dost, and expanded EV/greener technology portfolio.
Non-CV Business Growth
Power Solutions revenue up 45% Y-o-Y, Defense revenue up 84% Y-o-Y, Aftermarket up 10% Y-o-Y in Q3.
International Market Expansion
Exports volume up 20% Y-o-Y in Q3; expanding network to 4 new territories and establishing ASEAN as a fourth home market.
Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Plant
Inaugurated one of the most modern EV manufacturing plants, built from ground zero in 14 months.
Bus Body Building Capacity
Will soon reach 20,000 numbers per year with the new Lucknow plant and ramp-up of other bus plants.
Service Network Expansion
Added 75 MHCV touch points and 77 LCV touch points during the 9-month period, with 45% of MHCV additions in North/Northeast.
GST Rate Rationalization
Lowered CV prices significantly, created a major fillip in consumption and freight demand, elevating buyer sentiments.
Favorable Macroeconomic Environment
Pro-growth FY27 Union Budget, India-EU FTA, and resolution of India-U.S. trade tariff deadlock are conducive to CV volume growth.
Infrastructure & Construction Momentum
Strong momentum on the infrastructure and construction side is expected to boost heavy-duty segments.
Aging Fleet & Replacement Demand
Average fleet age at 10-10.5 years is unsustainable; GST could be the trigger for a new replacement cycle.
Commodity Cost Increases
Increase in PGM, copper, and aluminum contributed to a 50 basis points gross margin compression in Q3.
Unfavorable Product Mix
Higher ICV contribution in Q3 sales due to initial retail segment momentum, which is less favorable for margins.
Sustained Commodity Price Pressure
If commodity pressure continues to build up, the industry would need to go for bigger price hikes to recover costs.
Pricing Power & Discounting
Initial notion that strong growth post-GST may not be the right time for price increases, leading to discount reductions instead of price circulars.
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
YoY comparison is primary for overall volume and financial growth, reflecting industry cycles and annual performance. QoQ is relevant for tracking sequential momentum in commodity costs, product mix shifts, and their impact on margins.
Domestic MHCV Volume Growth (Q3 FY26)
23.4% Y-o-Y, better than industry growth.
Domestic MHCV Market Share (YTD 9M FY26)
30.9%, a gain of 60 basis points Y-o-Y.
Domestic LCV Volume Growth (Q3 FY26)
30% Y-o-Y, beating industry growth.
Domestic LCV Market Share (Q3 FY26)
12.1%, with a gain of 70 basis points Y-o-Y.
Confident of Strong Volume Growth
Management remains confident of posting good volume growth in the coming quarters due to the conducive environment.
New Replacement Cycle Underway
Believe the current momentum could be the start of a new replacement cycle in the CV industry, with strong sentiment from bulk buyers.
Focus on Non-South Market Share
Actively increasing penetration in North, East, and Center markets, aiming for 30% market share in these zones, similar to overall India.
Subsidiary Performance & Funding
Most subsidiaries are doing well; future funding (e.g., INR 300 crores earmarked for OHM) will be for growth, not loss funding.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| MHCV Domestic Market Share | 30.9% (YTD 9M FY26) | Sustained market share gains, particularly in non-South regions, indicating successful penetration strategies. |
| EBITDA Margin | 13.3% (Q3 FY26) | Improvement in margins as commodity costs are recovered and product mix normalizes towards heavy-duty segments. |
| Commodity Cost Pass-through | Reducing discounts, seeking price increases. | Successful and timely recovery of commodity cost increases through pricing actions without impacting demand. |
| Bulk Buyer Demand for Heavy-Duty | Strong traction seen in January, projecting demand for next 3-4 quarters. | Continued strong and sustained demand from bulk buyers for heavy-duty trucks (tippers, MAVs, tractor-trailers). |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Show extracted source claims
The new plant in Andhra Pradesh will reach a capacity of 200 units per month by the end of the year.
"will reach a capacity of 200 units per month by end of the year"
OHM is progressing well on its target of operating 2,500 plus buses within the next 12 months.
"target of operating 2,500 plus buses within the next 12 months"
Outcome check: Revenue YoY averaged 23.6% across 1 later quarter(s).
Ashok Leyland is confident to post a double-digit revenue growth in FY'26, driven by a strong defence order book and tender win pipeline.
"confident to post a double-digit revenue growth in FY'26"
Outcome check: Revenue YoY averaged 23.6% across 1 later quarter(s).
The newest and most modern bus plant at Lucknow, currently under construction, will be operational from Q3 FY'26.
"will be operational from Q3 FY'26"
Trend score and candlestick chart
46NeutralSMA20 -13.5% / mo
Technical chart
ASHOKLEYdaily · 6M-9.0%Technical trend read
Bearish setupTrend is weak — long-term trend unclear. RSI 36.
- SMA20 falling (~10.3% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 36 — sideways, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal, histogram expanding negatively — bearish momentum building.
- Within 5% of 52-week low — testing support.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Valuation, score drivers, trust methodology, financials, and peers
Use these sections after reviewing the decision summary, latest result, thesis, management accountability, and technical timing above.
Fundamental score breakdown
WATCHLISTWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 26.3%.
- Growth contributes 19/25 to the score.
- Quality contributes 13/20 to the score.
Main drags
- Altman Z is 1.7, in distress territory.
- Promoter pledge is 40.1%.
- Balance sheet is weaker at 0/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Consumer valuation: PE/PEG and brand-quality premium
Consumer franchises can deserve higher multiples, but only when growth quality supports them.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +2 points.
Factor attribution
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Weak Trust: Management has 100% delivered/partly-delivered outcomes on 2 checked claims. It ranks around the 4th percentile of the scored universe and 3rd percentile within Auto. Main check: balance sheet trust is weak at 22/100.
Mixed Trust Lite: 4/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth. Key concern: Promoters have pledged 40.1% of holding.
Management or financial behaviour needs caution. Demand stronger valuation compensation.
overall median 67 · Auto: 3rd pctile, median 71 · Mid: 2nd pctile, median 76
64 documents indexed, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
2/4 claims checked · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Weak Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸4/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth.
- ▸4/4 latest quarters had positive YoY PAT growth.
- ▸Latest 3 quarters had positive YoY PAT growth.
- ▸OPM spread across recent quarters is 3%.
Trust risks
- ▸Promoters have pledged 40.1% of holding.
- ▸Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-4895 Cr.
- ▸Debt/equity is 4.49.
- ▸Altman Z is 1.72.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Intrinsic value
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 22.30
- P/B
- 5.83
- EV/EBITDA
- 12.35
- Market Cap
- 82833.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 28.10%
- ROCE
- 13.80%
- ROA
- 3.68%
- Dividend Y
- 2.48%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 24.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 85.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 11.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 46.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 4.49
- Interest Coverage
- 2.28×
- Altman Z
- 1.72
- Book Value
- 24.20
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- —
- FCF Positive Y
- 1/5
- OCF
- -4895.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 5.91
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 51.51%
- Promoter Pledge
- 40.10%
- Momentum 52W
- 26%
Financial History
Updated 9/6/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
Business-comparable peers in Auto — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.