BPCL
Large CapBharat Petroleum Corporation Limited
Power
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) is an Indian state-owned oil marketing company engaged in refining, marketing, and infrastructure. It is committed to India's energy security, ensuring uninterrupted fuel availability, and expanding into petrochemicals, renewables, and upstream exploration & production.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Strong fundamentals, management trust is supportive, but price trend argues for patience. Suitable for staggered entry or watchlist confirmation rather than aggressive buying.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/4 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 31 Mar 2026
Good · 60/100Rev +7% YoY · PAT +28% YoY · margin expansion · operating leverage
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹1,18,701 Cr | +6.7% | -0.3% |
| EBITDA | ₹9,634 Cr | +24.5% | -17.6% |
| Operating margin | 8.0% | +100 bps | -200 bps |
| PAT | ₹5,625 Cr | +28.1% | -21.7% |
| PAT margin | 4.7% | +79 bps | -130 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
BPCL reported Q4 FY26 standalone PAT of INR3,191 crores and consolidated PAT of INR5,625 crores. FY26 saw record refinery throughput at 116% utilization, GRM of USD11.74/barrel, and domestic sales volume growth of 3.5% YoY, despite geopolitical volatility and supply chain disruptions.
The investment thesis is under stress due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, significant crude and product price volatility, and supply chain disruptions. Management acknowledges short-term challenges with cash flow mismatch from pricing restrictions, but maintains confidence in long-term strategy and project execution, assuming market normalization.
Petrochemical Integration
Major capital allocation towards petrochemicals to integrate with refinery intermediaries for value addition and meet import-driven demand.
Upstream E&P
Investing in development-stage projects (Mozambique, Brazil) and new discoveries (UAE) to achieve 6.5-7 MMT crude capacity in group balance sheet.
Retail Network Expansion
Commissioned 1,691 new retail outlets in FY26, taking total to 25,323, aiming for 32% retail market share.
Green Energy Push
Advancing renewables with 251 MW installed capacity and 100 MW additional wind and solar projects under execution.
Dearomatized Solvent Project
200 TMT/year capacity project at Mumbai refinery commissioned in Q4 FY26, for import substitution in specialty products.
Krishnapatnam Hyderabad Pipeline
425-kilometer, 2.6 MMTPA multiproduct pipeline commissioned in Q4 FY26, strengthening logistics infrastructure.
Ethanol Plants
1G and 2G ethanol plants (100 KLPD each) commissioned at Bargarh, Odisha, in Oct 2025 and March 2026 respectively.
Bina Petrochemical & Refinery Expansion
Achieved 23% progress against a planned 32% schedule, with INR4,700 crores incurred and INR25,400 crores committed.
Diversified Crude Sourcing
Increased Russian crude procurement to 31% in Q4 FY26 (40-41% recently) and diversified to 8 new crude grades from 4 regions.
Strong Domestic Demand
Overall domestic sales volume grew 3.5% in FY26, with petrol sales up 5.7% and ATF up 11.4%.
Government Support for LPG
Received 5 installments from Government of India against announced compensation for LPG under-recoveries.
Retail Productivity
Maintained leadership in throughput per retail outlet among PSU peers at 143 KL/month in Q4 FY26.
Geopolitical Developments
Ongoing tension in West Asia, disruptions in global energy supply chains, and Strait of Hormuz flow disruptions.
Crude and Product Price Volatility
Witnessed heightened volatility towards the end of FY26, with crude landing costs reaching $120-122/barrel.
Forex Fluctuations
Forex fluctuations continue to remain a key driver for energy markets.
Project Schedule Variance
Bina Petrochemical project progress is 23% against a planned 32%, primarily due to geopolitical developments and supply chain challenges.
Geopolitical Instability
Ongoing tensions and disruptions could further impact crude supply, pricing, and project execution timelines.
Pricing Restrictions & Under-recoveries
Current environment poses 'short-term challenges' with cash flow mismatch due to unrecovered costs on fuels, potentially stressing the balance sheet if prolonged.
Project Execution Delays
Bina project faces schedule variance due to supply chain issues; Brazil upstream project delayed by 1.5-2 years, leading to impairment.
Forex and Commodity Price Volatility
Crude, product, and freight prices, along with forex, are highly volatile, making forward-looking guidance difficult.
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Q4 FY26 results are presented, but many key operational metrics like refinery utilization, GRM, and sales volumes are reported for the full FY26, making YoY comparisons essential for annual performance. QoQ is relevant for assessing sequential momentum in a volatile market.
Refinery Utilization
Refineries operated at 116% of utilization during FY26.
Refinery Throughput
Refinery throughput was 41.15 MMT in FY26, highest ever.
Gross Refining Margin (GRM)
GRM for FY26 stood at USD11.74 per barrel.
Domestic Sales Volume
Overall domestic sales volume was 54.18 MMT in FY26, registering 3.5% growth YoY.
Operational Resilience
Continued to demonstrate operational resilience across refining, marketing, and infrastructure businesses despite turbulent times.
Long-term Strategy Confidence
Confident in long-term strategy, execution capabilities, and ability to deliver sustained value, having navigated multiple industry cycles.
Balance Sheet Strength
Maintained a strong balance sheet with standalone debt-to-equity of 0.11; not foreseeing big jump in debt-to-equity for FY27 capex.
Project Commitment
Not relooking at existing announced projects, assuming market conditions will normalize after some point of time.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| LPG Compensation | Cumulative negative buffer of INR12,319 crores as of March 2026. | Further government support or price revisions to address the negative buffer and prevent cash flow stress. |
| Crude and Product Price Stability | Heightened volatility, with crude landing costs around $120-122/barrel. | Normalization of global energy markets and price stability, expected by July-August if geopolitical issues settle. |
| Bina Petrochemical Project Progress | 23% progress against 32% planned, with INR4,700 crores incurred. | Mitigation measures to address schedule variance and ensure timely completion within approved cost limits. |
| Retail Market Share | MS 30.02%, HSD 29.61% in April 2026. | Progress towards the long-term target of 32% retail market share through network expansion and customer initiatives. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Show extracted source claims
BPCL plans disciplined capex execution of INR 1.7 Lakhs Crores.
"Disciplined capex execution - INR 1.7 Lakhs Crores"
BPCL plans to achieve 10 GW of Renewable Energy capacity by 2035.
"10 GW RE by 2035"
BPCL targets to achieve Scope 1 and Scope 2 net-zero emissions by 2040.
"Our target is to achieve Scope 1 and Scope 2 net-zero emissions by 2040"
BPCL aims for ~3.2 MMT capacity and 8% product portfolio share from Petrochemicals by FY29.
"~3.2 MMT capacity & 8% product portfolio share from Petchem by FY29"
Trend score and candlestick chart
41NeutralSMA20 -9.7% / mo · near 52W low
Technical chart
BPCLdaily · 3Y-22.7%Technical trend read
Bearish setupTrend is weak — long-term trend unclear. RSI 43.
- SMA20 falling (~3.8% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 43 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal, histogram expanding negatively — bearish momentum building.
- 26% off 52W high · 8% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Valuation, score drivers, trust methodology, financials, and peers
Use these sections after reviewing the decision summary, latest result, thesis, management accountability, and technical timing above.
Fundamental score breakdown
DEEP VALUEWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- FCF yield is supportive at 20.0%.
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 85.3%.
Main drags
- Growth is weaker at 19/25; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Balance sheet is weaker at 12/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Quality is weaker at 17/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +1 points.
Factor attribution
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Healthy Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 96th percentile of the scored universe and 94th percentile within Power. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
High Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero. Key concern: 2 older quarters in the 8-quarter window had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
Generally investable credibility. Look for weak sub-scores before increasing position size.
overall median 67 · Power: 94th pctile, median 67 · Large: 87th pctile, median 74
64 documents indexed, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
4 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Healthy Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is 20%.
- ▸9 years of positive FCF.
- ▸ROCE is 25.7%.
Trust risks
- ▸2 older quarters in the 8-quarter window had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Intrinsic value
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 4.73
- P/B
- 1.23
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.63
- Market Cap
- 123692.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 28.80%
- ROCE
- 25.70%
- ROA
- 10.39%
- Dividend Y
- 6.14%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 15.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 16.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- -1.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 98.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.54
- Interest Coverage
- 13.95×
- Altman Z
- 3.56
- Book Value
- 231.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 19.97%
- FCF Positive Y
- 9/5
- OCF
- 50769.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 59.57
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 52.98%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 14%
Financial History
Updated 9/6/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
Business-comparable peers in Power — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.