HFCL
Large CapHFCL Limited
Telecom
HFCL is a technology-led enterprise serving the telecom and defence sectors. It manufactures optical fiber cables, telecom equipment, and defence products, and provides system integration/EPC services. The company has a global presence across 60+ countries and focuses on product innovation and manufacturing infrastructure.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Weak fundamentals, management trust needs verification, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is weak.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 31 Mar 2026
Good · 55/100Rev +128% YoY · margin expansion · +51% QoQ
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹1,824 Cr | +127.7% | +50.6% |
| EBITDA | ₹314 Cr | +948.6% | +37.7% |
| Operating margin | 17.0% | +2200 bps | -200 bps |
| PAT | ₹184 Cr | NDF | +80.4% |
| PAT margin | 10.1% | +2045 bps | +167 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
HFCL reports strong FY26 performance with Revenue from Operations at ₹4,949.27 Cr, EBITDA at ₹826.75 Cr (16.70% margin), and PAT at ₹329.44 Cr (6.66% margin), driven by strategic shifts.
The company is undergoing a significant strategic shift towards higher-margin products, increased exports, and private sector business, supported by substantial capacity expansion and backward integration. FY26 results demonstrate strong progress in these stated priorities, creating a solid base for future growth and margin expansion.
OFC & Connectivity Solutions
Operating at full capacity, secured a single largest multi-year export OFC order of ₹10,159 Cr, driven by hyperscaler and 5G demand.
Defence Equipment
Acquisition of aerospace business with a confirmed export-oriented order book of ₹1,930 Cr, and land allocated for a new manufacturing facility.
Telecom Equipment
Pioneering next-gen connectivity solutions with India's first indigenously developed 5G FWA CPE and leadership in Wi-Fi APs & UBRs.
EPC & System Integration
Focus on disciplined project selection and quality over quantity, with sustained presence in government & defence networks.
OFC Manufacturing Capacity
Enhancing to ~43 million fkm p.a. by June 2026.
Optical Fiber Capacity
Expanded to ~28 million fkm p.a., with the next phase targeting ~33.9 million fkm p.a. by December 2026.
Preform Manufacturing
Planned entry into preform manufacturing, targeting 310 MT/annum by July 2029 with ₹580 Cr capex.
Defence Manufacturing Facility
1,000 acres land allocated for defence manufacturing facility in Andhra Pradesh; groundbreaking ceremony on May 15, 2026.
AI Data Centre Expansion
AI data centers need 1,728+ fiber cables (36x more fibre per AI rack), driving demand for high-performance fibre and premium pricing.
Global 5G Deployments & Rising Data Consumption
Driving strong demand across optical fibre cable and telecom infrastructure, with structurally elevated 5G OFC demand.
Defence Modernization & Geopolitical Environment
Accelerating demand for domestic and global defence solutions, with military UAV systems consuming 50–100 mn fkm annually.
BharatNet Phase III
₹65,000 Cr government program underway, with HFCL consortium winning ₹8,100 Cr+ in contracts.
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
YoY comparison is crucial for assessing the full-year impact of the company's strategic shifts and overall growth trajectory. QoQ comparison is relevant for tracking sequential momentum in revenue, margin expansion, and execution, especially given the significant Q4FY26 performance.
Revenue from Operations (FY26)
₹4,949.27 Cr
EBITDA Margin (FY26)
16.70%
PAT Margin (FY26)
6.66%
Total Order Book (FY26 end)
₹21,206 Cr
Strategic Focus
Focus remains on disciplined capital allocation, execution excellence, and strengthening technology and product portfolio.
Export Target
Targeting 50%+ exports from FY27 onwards.
Product Revenue Target
Targeting 70%+ revenue from products in FY27.
EBITDA Margin Aspiration
EBITDA margin to expand from ~16.7% in FY26 to 20-21% by FY29.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Export Revenue Share | 41.36% (FY26) | Achievement of 50%+ from FY27 onwards. |
| Product Revenue Share | 62% (FY26) | Achievement of 70%+ in FY27. |
| EBITDA Margin | 16.70% (FY26) | Progress towards 20-21% by FY29. |
| OFC Capacity Ramp-up | 34 mn fkm p.a. (full capacity) | Successful commissioning and utilization ramp-up of expanded capacity to ~43 mn fkm by June 2026. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
56NeutralSMA20 +108.9% / mo
Technical chart
HFCLdaily · 6M+169.5%Technical trend read
Mixed signalsSignals are conflicting — long-term trend unclear. RSI 64. Wait for confirmation.
- SMA20 rising (~30.9% over last month) — short-term momentum positive.
- RSI(14) at 64 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- 15% off 52W high · 198% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Valuation, score drivers, trust methodology, financials, and peers
Use these sections after reviewing the decision summary, latest result, thesis, management accountability, and technical timing above.
Fundamental score breakdown
OVERVALUEDWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Cash flow contributes 3/10 to the score.
- Balance sheet contributes 4/15 to the score.
- Growth contributes 6/25 to the score.
Main drags
- Fair-value margin of safety is negative at -528.5%.
- Valuation is weaker at 0/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Quality is weaker at 0/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Telecom valuation: EV/EBITDA against ARPU, debt, and capex
Telecom needs enterprise-value and cash-flow framing because leverage is structurally important.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
Factor attribution
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Mixed Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 17th percentile of the scored universe and 24th percentile within Telecom. Main check: results consistency is weak at 17/100.
Mixed Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero. Key concern: Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-378 Cr.
Usable, but needs evidence. Treat guidance with a margin of safety.
overall median 67 · Telecom: 24th pctile, median 67 · Large: 11th pctile, median 74
148 documents indexed, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Mixed Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸6 years of positive FCF.
Trust risks
- ▸Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-378 Cr.
- ▸2 latest quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
- ▸Promoter holding fell 3.3%.
- ▸ROE is low at 7%.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Intrinsic value
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 87.40
- P/B
- 5.56
- EV/EBITDA
- 31.55
- Market Cap
- 27249.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 6.95%
- ROCE
- 10.90%
- ROA
- 3.71%
- Dividend Y
- 0.06%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 2.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 5.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 1.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 1.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.36
- Interest Coverage
- 3.15×
- Altman Z
- 5.90
- Book Value
- 32.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- —
- FCF Positive Y
- 6/5
- OCF
- -378.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 2.04
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 28.29%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 79%
Financial History
Updated 9/6/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
Business-comparable peers in Telecom — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.