HINDPETRO
Mid CapHindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
Power
HPCL is a Maharatna company, 2nd largest LPG marketer and cross-country product pipeline network operator in India. It owns & operates a 428 TMTPA Lube Refinery, with 24.5 MMTPA refining capacity (HPCL) and 11.3 MMTPA (JV). It holds a 20.27% domestic market share in petroleum products and has a legacy of over 100 years.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Strong fundamentals, management trust is supportive, but price trend argues for patience. Suitable for staggered entry or watchlist confirmation rather than aggressive buying.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 31 Mar 2026
Good · 70/100Rev +5% YoY · PAT +78% YoY · margin expansion · operating leverage
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹1,14,937 Cr | +4.8% | -0.2% |
| EBITDA | ₹9,211 Cr | +59.1% | +31.6% |
| Operating margin | 8.0% | +300 bps | +200 bps |
| PAT | ₹6,065 Cr | +77.6% | +51.2% |
| PAT margin | 5.3% | +217 bps | +180 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
HPCL reported highest ever PAT of ₹17,175 Cr, highest ever market sales of 51.4 MMT, and highest ever refinery throughput of 26.0 MMT in FY26. Revenue from operations was ₹4,78,543 Cr, with a Refinery GRM of US$8.79/bbl.
The company delivered strong FY26 results with record sales and throughput. Strategic investments in refining, petrochemicals, natural gas, and renewables are underway, aiming for significant capacity expansion and a shift towards a diversified energy company. Management claims the debt cycle is past its peak standalone and nearing peak consolidated, targeting a 2x+ jump in EBITDA by FY28.
Refining Capacity Expansion
Total refining capacity to increase from 35.8 MMTPA (2025-26) to 45.3 MMTPA (2027-28), primarily driven by HRRL.
Petrochemicals
2.4 MMTPA Petchem Capacity in HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Ltd (JVC). Petrochemical Marketing started under ‘HP Durapol’ Brand.
Natural Gas
Participation across entire value chain: LNG import facilities, natural gas pipelines, CGD network in 25 GAs, and CNG stations expansion to 3,000 by 2027-28.
Renewables & Biofuels
Renewable capacity target of 2,400 MW by 2027-28 (from 235 MW in 2025-26). Biofuel capacity target of 300 TMT by 2027-28 (from 12.06 TMT).
Refining Capacity
Total refining capacity to increase from 35.8 MMTPA (2025-26) to 45.3 MMTPA (2027-28), with HRRL contributing 9 MMTPA.
HRRL Refinery & Petrochemical Complex
9 MMTPA Green Field Refinery & Petrochemical complex (74% HPCL stake) with 91.6% physical progress as of 31-03-2026. Project cost: ₹79,459 Cr.
Marketing Network
Retail Outlets to expand from 25,098 to 26,000 by 2027-28. Pipeline network to expand from 5,440 km to 6,000 km by 2027-28.
Green Hydrogen
A 370 TPA Green Hydrogen Plant commissioned at Visakh Refinery. Plans for 5,000 TPA at Visakh and 4,300 TPA at HRRL by 2029-30.
Energy Transition Focus
HPCL is committed to Net Zero Scope 1 & 2 emissions by 2040, with an investment of ₹60,000 Cr, driving growth in renewables, biofuels, and green hydrogen.
Diversified Portfolio
Transformation to an Energy Company with significant presence in traditional fuels, natural gas, petrochemicals, green energy, and non-fuels.
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
The document provides annual financial and operational data for FY2025-26 and previous fiscal years, making year-over-year comparison most relevant to assess performance trends and strategic progress.
Market Sales Volume
Highest Ever Market Sales: 51.4 MMT in FY 2025-26.
Refinery Throughput
Highest Ever Refinery Thruput: 26.0 MMT in FY 2025-26.
Refinery Utilization
Mumbai Refinery: 105% (FY26); Visakh Refinery: 107% (FY26); HMEL (JV): 103% (FY26).
Refinery GRM
Refinery GRM: US$ 8.79 / bbl in FY 2025-26.
Strategic Vision
Creating Value and Delivering Growth Responsibly by strengthening existing businesses, leveraging new growth engines, and seizing green & emerging opportunities.
EBITDA Target
Working towards 2x + jump in EBITDA levels by FY28, supported by maturing CAPEX and improved self-sufficiency.
Debt Cycle
Past the Peak Debt Cycle (Standalone) and Nearing Peak Debt (Consolidated), aiming to strengthen key financial and leverage ratios.
Net Zero Commitment
Committed to achieve Net Zero Scope 1 & 2 emissions by 2040, with a dedicated Energy Transition Cell and planned investments of ₹60,000 Cr.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Refining Capacity | 35.8 MMTPA (2025-26) | Achievement of 45.3 MMTPA by 2027-28, particularly HRRL commissioning and ramp-up. |
| EBITDA Levels | ₹33,182 Cr (FY26) | Progress towards the management's target of a 2x+ jump in EBITDA by FY28. |
| Renewable Capacity | 235 MW (2025-26) | Achievement of 2,400 MW by 2027-28 and progress on Net Zero roadmap. |
| Total Debt Equity Ratio | 0.80 (FY26) | Further strengthening of leverage ratios, confirming the 'past peak debt cycle' claim. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
42NeutralSMA20 -11.4% / mo
Technical chart
HINDPETROweekly · 1Y-1.1%Technical trend read
NeutralTrend is undirectional — long-term trend unclear. RSI 47.
- SMA20 falling (~12.8% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 47 — sideways, no extreme reading.
- MACD above signal but histogram contracting — bullish momentum cooling.
- 25% off 52W high · 21% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Valuation, score drivers, trust methodology, financials, and peers
Use these sections after reviewing the decision summary, latest result, thesis, management accountability, and technical timing above.
Fundamental score breakdown
DEEP VALUEWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- FCF yield is supportive at 31.1%.
- Piotroski is strong at 7/9.
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 88.6%.
Main drags
- Balance sheet is weaker at 10/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Growth is weaker at 17/25; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Quality is weaker at 19/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
Factor attribution
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Healthy Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 97th percentile of the scored universe and 96th percentile within Power. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
High Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero. Key concern: 2 older quarters in the 8-quarter window had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
Generally investable credibility. Look for weak sub-scores before increasing position size.
overall median 67 · Power: 96th pctile, median 67 · Mid: 88th pctile, median 76
48 documents indexed, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Healthy Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is 31.2%.
- ▸9 years of positive FCF.
- ▸ROCE is 22.2%.
Trust risks
- ▸2 older quarters in the 8-quarter window had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Intrinsic value
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 4.39
- P/B
- 1.21
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.56
- Market Cap
- 79315.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 30.90%
- ROCE
- 22.20%
- ROA
- 8.89%
- Dividend Y
- 2.82%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 14.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 11.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 0.08%
- EPS 3Y
- 66.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.85
- Interest Coverage
- 9.02×
- Altman Z
- 3.57
- Book Value
- 308.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 31.15%
- FCF Positive Y
- 9/5
- OCF
- 36111.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 84.81
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 54.90%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 30%
Financial History
Updated 9/6/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
Business-comparable peers in Power — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.