MGL
Large CapMahanagar Gas Limited
Power
Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) is one of India's largest City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies. It operates over 8,320 Kms of pipeline, 518 CNG stations, serving 1.28mn CNG vehicles and 3.21mn+ PNG households. MGL has a consistent track record of over 30 years and secured gas availability.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Mixed fundamentals, management trust is acceptable, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is weak.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 2/4 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 31 Mar 2026
Bad · 0/100PAT -47% YoY · margin compression · Rev +4% YoY
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹2,052 Cr | +4.5% | -0.4% |
| EBITDA | ₹258 Cr | -34.5% | -26.5% |
| Operating margin | 13.0% | -700 bps | -400 bps |
| PAT | ₹130 Cr | -47.4% | -35.3% |
| PAT margin | 6.3% | -624 bps | -342 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
MGL reported a significant decline in Q4 FY26 profitability with PAT down 45.56% YoY and 34.68% QoQ, despite a modest 4.52% YoY revenue growth. Full-year FY26 PAT also fell 18.67% YoY, indicating margin pressure.
The sharp decline in Q4 FY26 and full-year FY26 profitability, particularly PAT and EBITDA margins, raises concerns. While revenue grew, the significant increase in gas cost per SCM eroded gross profit and EBITDA, putting the earnings thesis under stress.
Sales Volume Composition – Q4 FY 26
Latest issuer-disclosed distribution across 4 reported categories.
Infrastructure Exclusivity/Reach
Over 8,320 Kms Pipeline with 518 CNG filing stations. One of the largest CGD Companies in India.
Strong Customer Base
CNG 1.28mn Vehicles, PNG 3.21mn+ households, 5,924 Industrial Commercial Customers.
Consistent Track Record
> 30 years of consistent growth.
Attractive Fuel Economics
Natural gas provides economic benefits over most alternative liquid fuels. CNG is price competitive compared to alternatives.
Diversified Sourcing Strategy
Secured Gas Availability from APM, HPHT, Term RLNG. Majority of sales from priority segments (CNG, D-PNG).
Competitive Product and Pricing Pressures
Potential risks and uncertainties include competitive product and pricing pressures.
Regulatory Developments
Potential risks and uncertainties include regulatory developments.
General Economic Conditions
Potential risks and uncertainties include such factors as general economic conditions.
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
The presentation provides both full fiscal year (YoY) and quarterly (YoY and QoQ) financial and operational data. Annual comparison is crucial for overall performance, while quarterly trends highlight recent momentum and margin pressures.
Total Sales Volume (FY26)
Total Volumes - MMSCMD FY 2025-26: 4.585
Total Sales Volume (Q4 FY26)
Total Volumes - MMSCMD Q4 FY 26: 4.672
Revenue (Net) per SCM (FY26)
Revenues (Net) INR/SCM FY 2026: 49.24
Gas Cost per SCM (FY26)
Gas Cost INR/SCM FY 2026: 33.55
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA Margins | 12.69% (Q4 FY26) | Stabilization or improvement from current low levels, indicating better cost management or pricing power. |
| Gas Cost per SCM | 35.11 INR/SCM (Q4 FY26) | Trends in gas procurement costs and their impact on profitability. |
| Total Sales Volume | 4.672 MMSCMD (Q4 FY26) | Continued growth in volumes across segments, especially CNG and Domestic PNG. |
| Customer Additions | 3.21mn+ PNG households, 1.28mn CNG vehicles | Continued expansion of customer base and network reach in existing and new GAs. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Show extracted source claims
EBITDA per SCM for Q3 FY26 can be considered around INR8.5.
"My guess is at least for Q3, you can hold on or you can consider INR8.5"
Outcome check: OPM moved from 16.0% to average 15.0% (-1.0 pp).
A long-term HPHT contract of almost 12 million is likely to be available in January 2026.
"likely availability of HPHT, almost 12 million, I think, long-term contract is likely to come up in the month of January 2026."
MGL will certainly have margin improvement in Q4 FY26 once long-term HPHT contracts come.
"long-term contracts, once it comes, Q4, certainly, we will have improvement."
Outcome check: OPM moved from 16.0% to average 15.0% (-1.0 pp).
MGL will soon convert spot HPHT/RLNG purchases into term contracts.
"we will be soon converting into term contract."
Trend score and candlestick chart
46Neutrallabel neutral
Technical chart
MGLdaily · 3Y-13.2%Technical trend read
Bearish setupTrend is weak — long-term trend unclear. RSI 43.
- SMA20 falling (~5.2% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 43 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal, histogram expanding negatively — bearish momentum building.
- 16% off 52W high · 18% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Valuation, score drivers, trust methodology, financials, and peers
Use these sections after reviewing the decision summary, latest result, thesis, management accountability, and technical timing above.
Fundamental score breakdown
FAIR VALUEWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Balance sheet contributes 12/15 to the score.
- Cash flow contributes 6/10 to the score.
Main drags
- Fair-value margin of safety is negative at -85.5%.
- Growth is weaker at 2/25; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Quality is weaker at 6/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
Factor attribution
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Healthy Trust: Management has 0% delivered/partly-delivered outcomes on 2 checked claims, with 2 adverse claim outcomes. It ranks around the 64th percentile of the scored universe and 67th percentile within Power. Main check: results consistency is weak at 39/100.
Healthy Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero. Key concern: 2 latest quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
Generally investable credibility. Look for weak sub-scores before increasing position size.
overall median 67 · Power: 67th pctile, median 67 · Large: 39th pctile, median 74
129 documents indexed, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
2/4 claims checked · 2 contradicted/failed claims
How to read this Trust Score
Healthy Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is positive at 2.6%.
- ▸4 years of positive FCF.
- ▸Debt/equity is 0.03.
Trust risks
- ▸2 latest quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
- ▸ROCE trend is -6.9%.
- ▸1/4 latest quarters had positive YoY PAT growth.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Intrinsic value
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.60
- P/B
- 1.64
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.82
- Market Cap
- 10576.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 13.70%
- ROCE
- 18.10%
- ROA
- 9.36%
- Dividend Y
- 2.80%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- -2.00%
- EPS 5Y
- -2.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 9.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 2.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.03
- Interest Coverage
- 68.86×
- Altman Z
- 5.18
- Book Value
- 651.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 2.59%
- FCF Positive Y
- 4/5
- OCF
- 1162.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 85.15
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 32.50%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 25%
Financial History
Updated 9/6/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
Business-comparable peers in Power — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.