NATIONALUM
Mid CapNational Aluminium Company Limited
Metals
National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO) is a Navratna CPSE with 51.28% Govt of India holding. It operates an integrated Bauxite-Alumina-Aluminium-Power-Coal Complex. NALCO claims to be a global leader in producing bauxite and alumina at the lowest cost, with dedicated port facilities and wind power generation.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Strong fundamentals, management trust is supportive, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is mixed.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/6 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 31 Mar 2026
Bad · 0/100Rev -5% YoY · PAT -17% YoY · margin compression · +6% QoQ
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹5,013 Cr | -4.8% | +6.0% |
| EBITDA | ₹2,349 Cr | -14.4% | +8.1% |
| Operating margin | 47.0% | -500 bps | +100 bps |
| PAT | ₹1,722 Cr | -16.7% | +8.0% |
| PAT margin | 34.4% | -489 bps | +64 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Q4 FY26 Net Sales and PAT declined YoY, but FY26 saw highest ever production and sales volumes across key segments, with Net Sales up 6.4% and PAT up 9.22% YoY. LME Aluminium prices showed an upward trend in Q4 FY26.
Despite a YoY dip in Q4 FY26 financials, NALCO delivered robust full-year FY26 performance with record production and sales volumes. Significant capacity expansion projects for bauxite, alumina, and smelter are underway, positioning the company for long-term growth. Favorable LME price trends and strong Indian demand outlook support the thesis, though governance concerns regarding independent directors are noted.
Pottangi Bauxite Mines Expansion
Expansion of Pottangi Bauxite mines to 3.5 MTPA capacity, likely opening in May 2026.
5th Stream Alumina Refinery Expansion
Expansion of Alumina Refinery with a 5th Stream, adding 1 MTPA capacity, commissioning expected June 2026.
Aluminium Smelter Expansion
Expansion of Aluminium Smelter by 0.5 MTPA capacity, with likely commissioning in August 2030.
Captive Power Plant Expansion
Expansion of Captive Power Plant by 1,080 MW capacity, likely commissioning in June 2031.
Pottangi Bauxite Mines
3.5 MTPA capacity addition, likely opening May 2026.
5th Stream Alumina Refinery
1 MTPA capacity addition, start of commissioning June 2026.
Aluminium Smelter
0.5 MTPA capacity addition, likely commissioning August 2030.
Captive Power Plant
1,080 MW capacity addition, likely commissioning June 2031.
Geopolitical Turmoil & Supply Disruptions
Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and capacity curtailments/disruptions (~3.0 Mln. TPA) reduce global supply, potentially increasing prices.
Elevated Energy Prices
Elevated Gas & Oil (Energy) prices provide a 'Cost Push' for aluminium prices.
Fund Re-alignment
Contagion from Copper & other Base metals through 'fund re-alignment' by fund managers.
Strong Demand Growth
Demand growth in industrial sectors like EVs, renewables, grid, solar, packaging, and construction. Indian aluminium demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.3-7.2% till 2030.
Monetary Policy & Currency Movements
Movement of US$, US Treasury Bond Yields, and FED's delayed stance on policy regarding interest rate cuts.
Regulatory & Economic Conditions
Changes in government regulations, laws, statutes, judicial pronouncements, and economic conditions affecting demand/supply and price.
EU's CBAM Roll-out
EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) roll-out could influence supply continuity and export competitiveness.
Board Governance
UNDER_STRESSAbsence of Independent Directors on the Board w.e.f. April 1, 2026, resulting in no Board level Committees being in position.
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Both Year-on-Year (YoY) and Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) comparisons are crucial for a metals company. YoY provides context for annual performance and seasonality, while QoQ highlights sequential momentum, utilization, and commodity price impacts in a cyclical industry.
Bauxite Production
Q4 FY26: 2,047 '000T (+7.57% YoY); FY26: 77.07 Lakh Tonne (+6.13% YoY).
Alumina Hydrate Production
Q4 FY26: 574 '000T (-1.88% YoY); FY26: 23.00 Lakh Tonne (+10.79% YoY).
Aluminium Metal Production
Q4 FY26: 117 '000T (-0.85% YoY); FY26: 4.72 Lakh Tonne (+2.61% YoY).
Net Sales
Q4 FY26: Rs 4,981 Crore (-4.72% YoY); FY26: Rs 17,729 Crore (+6.40% YoY).
Cost Efficiency & Productivity
Driving cost efficiency through reduction in specific consumptions and unlocking higher productivity via optimal use of installed capacities.
Raw Material Linkages
Building sustainable competitive advantage via secured raw material linkages.
Refinery Capacity Protection
Expanded Refinery capacity aims to protect the bottom line in case of an LME downswing.
Value-Added Products
Smelter capacity addition will provide scope for extrusions and other value-added products.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| LME Aluminium Price | March 2026: $3,370/MT | Average around US$ 3,125 / MT for CY 2026. |
| Pottangi Bauxite Mines Commissioning | Likely opening May 2026 | Successful commissioning and ramp-up of 3.5 MTPA capacity. |
| 5th Stream Alumina Refinery Commissioning | Start of commissioning June 2026 | Successful commissioning and ramp-up of 1 MTPA capacity. |
| Indian Aluminium Demand Growth | Positive growth in past 5 years | Sustained CAGR of 6.3 to 7.2 percent till 2030. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Show extracted source claims
Indian Aluminium demand is expected to grow at a CAGR range of 6.3% to 7.2% until 2030.
"Indian Aluminium demand is expected to grow at a CAGR range of 6.3 to 7.2 per cent till 2030."
LME aluminium prices are projected to average around US$ 3125 per metric tonne for calendar year 2026.
"LME prices to average around US$ 3125 / MT for CY 2026."
The 5th Stream Alumina Refinery, with a capacity of 1 MTPA, is scheduled to start commissioning in June 2026.
"Start of Commissioning- June’2026"
The Aluminium Smelter expansion, with a capacity of 0.5 MTPA, is likely to be commissioned in August 2030.
"Likely Commissioning- Aug’2030"
The Captive Power Plant, with a capacity of 1,080 MW, is likely to be commissioned in June 2031.
"Likely Commissioning- Jun’2031"
The Pottangi Bauxite mines, with a capacity of 3.5 MTPA, are likely to open in May 2026.
"Likely Opening May’2026"
Trend score and candlestick chart
55NeutralSMA20 +8.9% / mo
Technical chart
NATIONALUMweekly · 3Y+352.2%Technical trend read
Mixed signalsSignals are conflicting — long-term uptrend intact. RSI 43. Wait for confirmation.
- Price above SMA200 (long-term uptrend) but mid-term MAs not aligned.
- SMA20 rising (~8.2% over last month) — short-term momentum positive.
- RSI(14) at 43 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal, histogram expanding negatively — bearish momentum building.
- 14% off 52W high · 113% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Valuation, score drivers, trust methodology, financials, and peers
Use these sections after reviewing the decision summary, latest result, thesis, management accountability, and technical timing above.
Fundamental score breakdown
DEEP VALUEWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- FCF yield is supportive at 3.2%.
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 41.9%.
Main drags
- Valuation is weaker at 16/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Balance sheet is weaker at 11/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Cash flow is weaker at 8/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
Factor attribution
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Healthy Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 95th percentile of the scored universe and 98th percentile within Metals. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
High Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero. Key concern: OPM spread across recent quarters is 20%.
Generally investable credibility. Look for weak sub-scores before increasing position size.
overall median 67 · Metals: 98th pctile, median 68 · Mid: 81st pctile, median 76
43 documents indexed, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
6 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Healthy Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is positive at 3.2%.
- ▸12 years of positive FCF.
- ▸Debt/equity is 0.00.
Trust risks
- ▸OPM spread across recent quarters is 20%.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Intrinsic value
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.00
- P/B
- 3.20
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.02
- Market Cap
- 69479.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 29.40%
- ROCE
- 39.60%
- ROA
- 21.84%
- Dividend Y
- 2.78%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 15.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 35.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 8.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 59.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.00
- Interest Coverage
- 79.28×
- Altman Z
- 9.04
- Book Value
- 118.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 3.22%
- FCF Positive Y
- 12/5
- OCF
- 6438.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 31.56
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 51.28%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 75%
Financial History
Updated 9/6/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
Business-comparable peers in Metals — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.