NMDC
Mid CapNMDC Limited
Metals
NMDC Limited is a state-owned iron ore producer in India. The company reported best-ever annual production and sales volumes in FY26, alongside strong revenue growth, despite a decline in average iron ore realizations and increased operating costs.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Investable fundamentals, management trust is supportive, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is mixed.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 31 Mar 2026
Good · 62/100Rev +62% YoY · PAT +37% YoY · +49% QoQ · margin compression
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹11,343 Cr | +61.9% | +49.0% |
| EBITDA | ₹2,644 Cr | +28.9% | +23.3% |
| Operating margin | 23.0% | -600 bps | -500 bps |
| PAT | ₹2,027 Cr | +37.2% | +15.4% |
| PAT margin | 17.9% | -321 bps | -522 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
NMDC reported best-ever annual iron ore production and sales volumes in FY26, up 21% and 13% YoY respectively. Q4 FY26 saw record production and sales, driving a 61% YoY revenue increase, though average realizations declined 5% YoY in Q4.
The company demonstrated robust operational performance with record production and sales volumes for both Q4 and full FY26. While average realizations saw a slight decline, strong volume growth translated into significant revenue and PAT increases. However, the notable increase in 'Purchase of Stock in Trade' and 'Pellets – Job Work Expenses' impacted EBITDA margins.
Increased Production Volumes
positiveFY26 iron ore production reached a best-ever 531.58 LT, up 21% YoY. Q4 FY26 production was 162.72 LT, a best-ever Q4.
Higher Sales Volumes
positiveFY26 iron ore sales were a best-ever 502.39 LT, growing 13% YoY. Q4 FY26 sales were 152.99 LT, a best-ever Q4.
Strong Q4 Revenue Growth
positiveRevenue from operations in Q4 FY26 grew 61% YoY to 11,173 INR Cr, driven by robust volume performance.
Declining Realizations
negativeAverage iron ore sales realization decreased 4% YoY in FY26 and 5% YoY in Q4 FY26.
Increased Purchase of Stock in Trade
negativePurchase of Stock in Trade surged 1901% YoY in FY26 to 3,942 Cr and 3318% YoY in Q4 FY26 to 2,837 Cr, impacting margins.
Higher Pellets Job Work Expenses
negativePellets – Job Work Expenses increased 428% YoY in FY26 to 1,361 Cr and 89% YoY in Q4 FY26 to 398 Cr.
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Both YoY and QoQ comparisons are crucial. YoY highlights annual growth and market share gains in a seasonal business. QoQ reveals sequential momentum in production, sales, and realizations, which are key for assessing short-term operational efficiency and commodity price impact in the Metals sector.
Iron Ore Production (FY26)
531.58 LT, +21% YoY (Best ever)
Iron Ore Sales (FY26)
502.39 LT, +13% YoY (Best ever)
Average Iron Ore Sales Realization (FY26)
4,921 Rs/T, -4% YoY
Revenue from Operations (FY26)
31,554 INR Cr, +33% YoY (Best ever)
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore Production Volumes | 531.58 LT (FY26), 162.72 LT (Q4 FY26) | Sustained growth in production volumes and operational efficiency. |
| Iron Ore Sales Realizations | 4,921 Rs/T (FY26), 4,759 Rs/T (Q4 FY26) | Stabilization or improvement in average domestic iron ore prices. |
| EBITDA Margin | 34% (FY26), 27% (Q4 FY26) | Trends in operating costs, especially 'Purchase of Stock in Trade' and 'Pellets – Job Work Expenses', to assess margin stability. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
56NeutralSMA20 +12.2% / mo
Technical chart
NMDCdaily · 6M+21.0%Technical trend read
Mixed signalsSignals are conflicting — long-term trend unclear. RSI 49. Wait for confirmation.
- SMA20 rising (~2.4% over last month) — short-term momentum positive.
- RSI(14) at 49 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- 8% off 52W high · 21% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Valuation, score drivers, trust methodology, financials, and peers
Use these sections after reviewing the decision summary, latest result, thesis, management accountability, and technical timing above.
Fundamental score breakdown
UNDERVALUEDWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 12.0%.
- Quality contributes 16/20 to the score.
Main drags
- Valuation is weaker at 12/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Growth is weaker at 12/25; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Cash flow is weaker at 5/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +2 points.
Factor attribution
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Healthy Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 90th percentile of the scored universe and 96th percentile within Metals. Main check: results consistency is weak at 57/100.
High Trust Lite: Promoter holding is 60.8%. Key concern: ROCE trend is -2.1%.
Generally investable credibility. Look for weak sub-scores before increasing position size.
overall median 67 · Metals: 96th pctile, median 68 · Mid: 65th pctile, median 76
124 documents indexed, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Healthy Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter holding is 60.8%.
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is positive at 1.5%.
- ▸12 years of positive FCF.
Trust risks
- ▸ROCE trend is -2.1%.
- ▸OPM spread across recent quarters is 20%.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Intrinsic value
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.60
- P/B
- 2.32
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.74
- Market Cap
- 78690.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 23.40%
- ROCE
- 27.60%
- ROA
- 15.42%
- Dividend Y
- 3.68%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 16.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 4.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 22.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 17.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.19
- Interest Coverage
- 76.53×
- Altman Z
- 5.82
- Book Value
- 38.70
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 1.47%
- FCF Positive Y
- 12/5
- OCF
- 4996.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 8.47
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 60.79%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 74%
Financial History
Updated 9/6/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
Business-comparable peers in Metals — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.